INTRODUCTORY CHAPTER
COMPREHENSIVE STUDY OF CONFLICT SITUATION IN MYANMAR
DR.GEETA MADHAVAN
PhD
(Intl Law)
The
age of global trade systems and interconnectivity and the dependence of a
nation on other nations for its growth and international stature has underlined the fact that the impact of
internal conflict of a country is no longer confined to its territorial limits.
Conflicts situations have territorial and extra territorial consequences:
immediate impact upon the neighbouring countries and indirect import upon the
entire region in which the country geographically exists. The conflict
situation in some nations have also influenced geo politics to the extent
that the world community has seen it
necessary not only to be concerned and search for methods to counter or reduce
the conflict situations and if possible diffuse them; also should such need
arise , with international consensus, censure the ruling establishment
of the country. Although the South Asia region has several countries caught in the
vortex of conflict, perhaps none faces more complex challenges than Myanmar
.Undeniably, Myanmar is a nation fraught with multi layered conflicts which has
resulted in instability, reflected not only within its own territory but the
consequences of which have deep resonance in its neighbouring countries and the
entire region of South Asia.
Consequences
of the long lasting internal conflict in Myanmar were examined at a Seminar in
Singapore conducted by the Centre for Security Analysis on 26 and 27 May, 2010.
The papers presented and the discussions amongst the informed participants
highlighted a range of consequences of the conflict which are not widely known.
This volume includes the papers and the ensuing discussions for the use of
scholars and policy makers.
The
conflict in Myanmar which is complex and multi layered has been variously seen
as (a) a conflict between the Tatmadaw and the pro democracy forces, (b) a conflict
between ethnic minorities and the ruling military junta of ethnic Burmese, (c) a
conflict between the ceasefire groups and other ethnic armies. However, these
divisions do not take into account the innumerable related issues that have
made the conflict situation more complex and created deep distrust for the
ruling establishment among its people. The internal conflict in Myanmar has its
historical inception from the time the country freed itself from its colonial
shackles. Each successive change in the ruling establishment has pushed it
further and further into a deep chasm where ethnic rebels, insurgents and drug
lords thrive and by their actions have drained it economically.
In
recounting the gradual progression of the conflicts and their eventual
crystallization in present form Dr Tin Maung Maung Than underlines two elements
that have influenced the policies of the Tatmadaw (the Royal Force). The Tatmadaw sees the military rulers as the
sole guardian of Burmese interest and has identified the military’s interest as the core national interest thereby
justifying its existence and its policies. Therefore, the military response is
seen as the legitimate and sole response to contain the internal threats of Myanmar
and to deal with possible external ones. This is apparent not only in the state
centric policies of the junta but also in the consequent expansion of the
military forces, the acquisition of sophisticated weaponry and the constant
modernization and reorganization of its defence capabilities. According to the paper,
the newer challenges that the military junta may have to face are those that
are the fallout of resource exploitation due to the partial opening up of the
economy and the increasing demand for a role in policy making by the ethnic
minorities. The elections conducted in Nov 2010 did not hold much hope in this
context as it did not intend to address the core issues of ethnicity . In its
dealing with the internal conflicts and
possible external threats the question arises whether
the Tatmadaw will pursue the policy it has followed for years and Dr. Than’s conclusion is that it
will have to adopt a new paradigm in view of the fact that its military prowess has not been able to
crush the armed insurgent groups. He also holds the view that the elected civilianized executive will have to face
the challenge of placating the military that has remained unchallenged so long.
Consequences of the internal conflict situation
in Myanmar extends beyond its borders. The internal conflicts and their
transnational consequences form the crux of Kerstin Duell’s paper. The paper explains that the conflict is not
just amongst the various parties pitted against the military junta but also
against each other. The conflict in Myanmar has also been identified as a
conflict between democratic rights and governance as well as between ethnic
rights and self determination. The conflicts are further complicated because of
the deadlock that has formed between the ruling military junta and the various
groups. The chronology of events leading to the current status clarifies that
Myanmar has three overwhelming problems
which have internal and external consequences, and several serious issues that
stem from those problems. The three main
problems are : the prevalent ethnic
disunity , economic underdevelopment and the production and distribution of drugs and narcotics .The other issues
that are detrimental to the peace and
growth in Myanmar are lack of governance in some areas , lack of human
security, poor public health and
thriving illicit border trade in drugs and humans leading to the establishment of private power lords .Taking into account the
military rulers’ reluctance to bring a regime change, there only possibility
of easing restrictions on Myanmar is by constructive engagements through regional
bodies like the ASEAN . Sanctions against Myanmar, as apparent from
similar situations in other parts of the world, only heaps suffering on the
people of Myanmar and does not necessarily put pressure on the military rulers.
Opening up the economy will permit countries of the region to access the rich
natural resources of Myanmar which in turn would rejuvenate the slow economic
growth. Besides, it is clear from the paper that the military rulers, due to
their historical past , are always suspicious of foreigners and tend to be
seclusive in their policies. They have also used the interest of the two powers
in the region viz. China and India to counter balance the excessive influence
of one or the other.
Discussion
about the effects of the internal strife in Myanmar upon the neigbouring
countries involves country-specific studies. Effects on countries that are
discussed in detail are Thailand ,
Bangladesh , China and India
Discussions of the effect of conflict in
Myanmar in the paper by Li Chenyang
is specific to the conflict between ceasefire
groups and the military junta in the region of Northern Myanmar abutting China
and its consequence upon the specific area . The activities of the ceasefire
groups (and he specifies them as five groups) controlling 50,000 square kms but
having influence over 100, 00 square kms and over a population of 1,750,000
range from drugs and gambling to pornography. Referring to the Kokang Event of
2009 wherein an estimated 30,000 Burmese refugees poured into China, serious
threats have been posed to security and stability of southwest China. Besides,
there lurks the potential of another armed conflict in Northern Myanmar which
will have severe impact on the Chinese territory. Illegal activities in the region has caused major
security risk and created some strains in the Sino-Myanmar relations. The
overall Sino Myanmar relations and their strategic cooperation tend to get strained
with each new wave of conflict. There is
also a negative impact of conflict on alternative cultivation and alternative
enterprise which have been created to counter the drug problem. The other
points of discussion in the paper are the impact of the conflict on anti-drug co operation, the
worsening drug situation due to illegal border trade and the loss to assets and
property due to the conflict situation in
Myanmar .China’s current and future vital national interest in Myanmar rests on two major
requirements : energy security and building access into the Indian Ocean which
have greatly influenced strategic co operation between Myanmar and China.
The
paper on the trans border effects of internal conflicts in Myanmar on Northeast
India by K Yohme clearly enunciates the
emerging concept that political boundaries should no longer be seen as lines dividing land and people;
instead , borderlands should
be recognized as areas of connectivity. Political boundaries should be treated
as gateways for economic and social exchanges for the benefit the regions lying
on both sides of the border. . Myanmar and the Northeastern states of India viz
Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram have direct borders and the
effect of the conflict in Myanmar is widely felt within these states. However,
the policy of the governments of Myanmar and India has been to view the effect
in this region only from a security perspective and this has led to negative transnational
consequences. The paper points out that the effects of the conflict, in
reality, go far beyond security concerns
and affect the economic and social
ethos of the region.
The
border region between Myanmar and the Northeastern states are very porous and continuous
cross border activities take place in the region. In the absence of a clear
policy about the region, much of these activities are termed as “illegal” and
has led to the alienation of the Northeast states of India and the border
regions of Myanmar. The era of globalization and the progressive economic thinking by the
governments of India and Myanmar has resulted in the launch of new policies to
develop the region and support peace in the border areas. Both the governments have
entered into cease fire agreement with the ethnic armed groups in the region with the
aim to build social and economic infrastructure and encourage participation of
the local people in the development of the region. The region is fraught with
several problems : similar conditions existing on both sides of the border has
created linkages among the armed groups in the region and has reinforced the
culture of violence and facilitated the creation of support and the
establishment of sanctuaries .Illicit drugs and gun trade have led to the
proliferation of insurgent groups in the Northeastern states of India. A
parallel economy system has evolved in the region creating new and complex
problems in the economic and social spheres. High incidence of drug use, the
rise in numbers of those afflicted by H IV has caused serious concerns.
However, prohibiting cross border movements for social and economic activities
would be counterproductive , resulting in the growth of criminal and anti
social activities. The recommendations in the paper are effective government
monitoring to reduce the negative implications of cross border trade and proper
identification methods along with proper monitoring mechanisms which would
reduce illegal movements. Infrastructure development in the border areas in the
Northeast states should be viewed as building strategic assets.
Thailand
has historical and ethnic connections with Myanmar but the unsettled border
region and the continuous conflict situation in Myanmar is a cause of deep
worry for Thailand. Citing the creation of the Buffer Zone by Thailand, the
paper by Pavin Chachavalpong discusses the negative impact of the buffer policy
pursued by Thailand. The buffer zone along the border supported the anti
Rangoon ethnic minorities challenging the military regime in Myanmar. The
financial and logistic support extended by Thailand to the ethnic rebels
worsened the situation. Over a period of time the buffer zone that was intended
to ensure the security of Thailand’s border transformed into an area that has created more
problems than the existing ones that it was meant to counter. It has become an
impediment in the way of fostering positive bilateral relationship between the
two countries and created mutual distrust. . The Burmese refugees have also
caused demographic changes in Thailand
leading to upheavals in the societal structure of Thailand. The perception of
the local population vis a vis the Burmese refugees is that of preferential
treatment being accorded to the refugees by the Government. The competition
between the local population and the refugees for resources has also caused
problems. The illegal immigrants have created an uncontrolled labour market;
creating other problems like cheap
labour, bribery, increased number of sex workers and a host of public health issues. Illegal
arms trade, proliferation of small arms, and drug trafficking are other major
causes of worry for the Thai authorities. The other issue that is important for
Thailand is energy security; therefore, it is imperative for Thailand to
maintain good relations with Myanmar. Thailand requires the natural gas
imported from Myanmar through pipelines and the electricity from the hydro
power the dams of Myanmar but their erratic policy towards Myanmar has resulted
in mutual distrust.
India’s
commitment to democracy and human rights for a long time fashioned its policies
in the Myanmar context. As pointed out in the paper of B P Routary, with the formulation of India’s Look
East policy, a new approach has been developed by India towards the countries
in the region and specifically towards Myanmar. It became apparent that a
policy based entirely on a high moral ground and based on India’s own values of
democracy to be made applicable to all, does not necessarily serve India’s
national interest. India required that
it engage Myanmar in a comprehensive strategic dialogue which would deal with
issues that were the common concerns of both countries. Cross border
insurgency, arms smuggling and border management are vital to both. China’s
greater role in building infrastructure in Myanmar and China's emergence as the
fourth largest investor in Myanmar are causes for serious concern to India. Besides
providing economic assistance to Myanmar, China has supplied the military junta
with weapons and training. China’s apparent interest also extends to accessing
energy and natural resources in Myanmar and it seeks through Myanmar to extend
its strategic access to the Indian Ocean. Therefore, India has crafted a policy
exhibiting greater patience in regime reform and not allowing the internal
conflicts and human rights issues to influence its dialogue with the military
junta. There are other sectors viz.
power, hydrocarbon and energy, in which India has national interest. The
construction for road linking the North Eastern states of India to Myanmar and India’s
comprehensive package for the long neglected North Eastern states fulfills both
its commitment to the North Eastern states of India as well as to Myanmar.
When
conjoining the conflict in Myanmar with the elements of regional integration
and discussing the responses, three broad questions have to be addressed: to
what extent does Myanmar’s military mindset interfere with the concept, what
investments can the countries in the region make to ensure peace in Myanmar and
do such opportunities exist and if they do what are the challenges that they
will have to overcome. Anna Louis Strachtan lays great emphasis on regional
integration identifying Myanmar as having great potential to be a trading
partner between neighbouring countries of the region. A greater responsibility
is prescribed for the countries especially Thailand, Bangladesh, India and
China by which they can play a positive albeit diverse roles in facilitating
conflict resolution. The main factor that is seen as possibly achieving this
goal is fostering economic prosperity in Myanmar. The countries in South and
Southeast Asia need to pursue greater regional co operation not only as part of
national interest but also as part of fulfilling the desire to maintain
stability and security in the region. Economic integration in the form of
physical connectivity through trade by countries of the region in their
individual capacity as well as through the regional organizations would be a
positive step in achieving the mentioned goal. ASEAN, SAARC, BIMSTEC, and a
progressive ASEAN Economic Community have all been invested with the
opportunity of increased engagement with Myanmar. The example of neighbouring
countries investing in building infrastructure to promote stability and economic growth in
Afghanistan exhibits how such enterprise can be successful. There have been
setbacks in Afghanistan and specifically for India, which has had to face destruction of property
and death of its personnel engaged in infrastructure building from the elements opposed
to bringing peace. Despite that, a proactive role in the movement to stability
and peace through investment is a better option than political pressure in
Myanmar . A change is desired in the isolationist attitude of the military
junta and their mindset of being distrustful of any foreign influence which has
resulted in the partial segregation of Myanmar in the region.
Echoing
that benefits will accrue by economic
development in Myanmar through increased trade and foreign investment Larry
Jagan envisages a movement that will create ethnic integration. Myanmar’s
military junta places high emphasis on territorial integrity and therefore they
see themselves as the single unifying force in the country. The protective
isolationist ideology of the military junta has not benefited the country;
therefore, there should be sincere
efforts to integrate the ethnic minorities groups into the political mainstream.
Unfortunately, the election of Nov 2010 did not move towards this. The
indicators that set out the military junta’s agenda for retaining control was
apparent in the election process that has been formulated therefore, subsequent
to the election no real solution has emerged
in Myanmar. A federal structure which would
include ethnic minorities has greater chance of ushering transition on the
socio-political level. Permitting the ethnic minorities to retain their
identity by allowing education to be carried out in their own language is also
suggested.
Ramu Mannivanan underlines another aspect of
the dialogue and reconciliation process. Referring to the Seven -Phase Roadmap,
the paper draws attention to the first step of the fulfillment of such a plan
which is the holding of free and fair elections. Questions do arise regarding
the true commitment of the military junta to this end
and whether elections would lead to the other steps that are mentioned
viz. step-by-step implementation towards a democratic system, convening the
Hluttaw (legislative body) and the drafting and adoption of a new constitution.
The unwillingness of the military junta to prune its powers and the Proposal for Reconciliation in Burma
(2009) which seems to address the apprehension of the military junta regarding
the transition to democracy rather than address the concerns of the ethnic
minority groups are some primary concerns
Undoubtedly , rejection of the military’s junta’s right to rule will not
solve the present conflict; creation of an environment for dialogue through
protracted engagement could be the key to economic and social transformation in
Myanmar.
Two
events have recently transpired in Myanmar that is significant. First, the
nationwide elections which were held in November 2010 , and the other the
release of Ms Aung San Suu Kyi , the leader of the National league for
Democracy held in house arrest since July 1989. The elections were held in
tightly controlled conditions wherein political activity was denied to certain
parties and individuals. However, the party formed by the military junta
was provided with overwhelming facilities leading to total lack of credibility
about the fairness of the election and subjecting it to sever criticism from
several countries. Although the international community welcomed the release of
Ms Aung San Suu Kyi, there is yet much speculation as to her future political
role in Myanmar. Meanwhile, the ongoing
clashes between the armed dissidents and the military forces continue
resulting in thousands of refugees fleeing from Myanmar to Thailand.
Internal
conflict in Myanmar had resulted in wide ranging external consequences in
several countries in the region. These consequences have themselves become
driving forces in the continuation of the conflict as have been discussed in
detail in the papers of this volume. It
is therefore , important that policy makers inside and outside Myanmar have a
clear insight of the situation and evolve a series of options in the areas
of economic and foreign policy which
influence the social and human spheres.
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